(1) is consistent with all of the known facts;
(2) predicts new facts.
|New theory is generated only after some novel observation, not before.|
|Predictions of new facts turn out to be right (psychologically encouraging 'verifications').||Predictions of new facts fail to be confirmed.|
"One may rationally stick to a degenerating research programme until it is overtaken by a rival and even after. What one must not do is to deny its poor public record.... It is perfectly rational to play a risky game: what is irrational is to deceive oneself about the risk" (Lakatos, 1971, p. 104).
Last modified March 1998
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